Method

Fitness is estimated with the Daniels & Gilbert VDOT model (Oxygen Power, 1979), cross-checked against Riegel's power law (American Scientist 69:285–90, 1981) at exponent 1.06. Training load uses the Banister impulse-response model with exponential TRIMP weighting: CTL is a 42-day and ATL a 7-day exponentially-weighted mean, form (TSB) their difference. Intensity distribution is three-zone by percentage of observed maximum heart rate (188 bpm, recorded 3 March 2026). Efficiency factor is metres per minute per heartbeat, restricted to aerobic runs of 4 km or more. The race projection is a 200,000-draw Monte Carlo over current fitness, projected gain, a half-marathon durability penalty and race-day execution noise. Source data: 116 running activities from 1 August 2025 to 14 August 2026, pulled from Strava. Resting heart rate is not exposed by the connector, so TRIMP assumes 50 bpm; the CTL trend is insensitive to ±8 bpm at under 5%.

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Rebuilt automatically after every logged run and each morning at 06:00 ET. Revision 2.0 · generated 2026-08-15 20:52 · not medical advice.